A quarterback has won each of the last 13 NFL MVP awards, and Adrian Peterson in 2012 remains the last non-quarterback to claim it. That math narrows the field before a single throw. Matthew Stafford took last year’s trophy by the third-closest margin in the award’s history, edging Drake Maye by one first-place vote, and the previous winner almost never repeats. That leaves the quarterbacks on the rosters best equipped to win 11+ games, the win threshold nearly every modern MVP has cleared.
Roster reinforcement, offensive scheme, and the health of the passer separate the real contenders from the names filling out the field. Five quarterbacks check every box as camps open, and each carries a case built on returning production, offseason additions, and a schedule that keeps them in the January conversation.
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Josh Allen enters as the front-runner after adding a true WR1
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) smiles while warming up before the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium
Allen chases his second MVP in three seasons after winning in 2024 and finishing third in last year’s vote. He closed 2025 with 4,247 total yards and 39 total touchdowns and was the only player in the NFL with 3,000+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards. His 104.3 passer rating topped the mark from his MVP season.
The Bills traded a second-round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore, giving Allen his first established No. 1 receiver since Buffalo dealt Stefon Diggs before the 2024 season.
Moore reunites with Joe Brady, his offensive coordinator in Carolina, who takes over as Buffalo’s head coach after the team fired Sean McDermott following a Divisional Round exit. Buffalo returns nearly all of its 2025 starters, which means the Brady promotion and the Moore addition are the two changes voters will weigh most. The receiver depth behind Moore remains thin, with Khalil Shakir and second-year receiver Keon Coleman carrying the rest of the perimeter workload.
Lamar Jackson banks on a play-action scheme built for his strengths
Jackson, a two-time MVP, already came one vote shy of a second unanimous award in 2024. He opened 2025 on an MVP pace with 969 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception through four weeks before a hamstring injury against Kansas City derailed the season, and Baltimore missed the playoffs.
New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, at 29 the youngest coordinator in the league, installs a play-action-heavy scheme that aligns with the part of Jackson’s game that grades out best.
Baltimore hired Jesse Minter to replace John Harbaugh, who left for the New York Giants, marking Jackson’s first season without Harbaugh and a nearly complete coaching turnover. The front office rebuilt the guard spots in front of him and added Trey Hendrickson to a pass rush that ranked among the league’s worst a year ago, joining All-Pro defenders Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith.
The open question is the center spot, where an unproven snapper replaces four years of Pro Bowl play from Tyler Linderbaum, a wrinkle that matters more in a scheme putting Jackson under center more often.
Joe Burrow returns healthy behind the roster he calls his most talented
Burrow enters 2026 after a turf toe injury limited him to eight starts in 2025, and Cincinnati finished 6-11. Over his three healthy 16+ game seasons, he has thrown for 4,611, 4,475 and 4,918 yards, the last of those with a 43-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He holds the NFL record with a 68.5 percent career completion rate and drew the No. 4 ranking among quarterbacks in ESPN’s survey of executives, coaches and scouts.
Cincinnati overhauled a defense that ranked 29th in defensive EPA over the previous three seasons, trading for Dexter Lawrence and signing Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook.
The Bengals return all 11 offensive starters, with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and running back Chase Brown all back, and Burrow called the group the most talented he has played with. Zac Taylor stays as head coach with the backing of Burrow and the offensive core. The defensive additions matter because Burrow’s production has rarely been the problem in Cincinnati; the supporting unit that ranked near the bottom of the league is what kept a high-scoring offense out of the playoffs three years running.
Justin Herbert pairs with Mike McDaniel and a rebuilt line
Herbert enters his first season under offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. He threw for 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025 and set a career high with 498 rushing yards, all behind a line that surrendered 54 sacks and led the league in pressure.
McDaniel switched Herbert’s shotgun stance to put his left foot forward for a quicker release, part of a wide-zone scheme built on timing throws and yards after the catch.
The Chargers made the offensive line an offseason priority, signing center Tyler Biadasz and getting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back to full health after Slater missed all of 2025 and Alt played six games. Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston and free-agent tight end David Njoku give McDaniel a deep set of skill players. The path runs through the AFC West, and Herbert’s 0-3 postseason record, with the Broncos and a rebounding Kansas City standing between the Chargers and their first division title since 2009.
Patrick Mahomes chases a third MVP while recovering from a torn ACL
Mahomes, a two-time MVP, has a 2026 case that depends first on health. He tore his ACL in a December loss, ending Kansas City’s season and snapping a streak of seven straight trips to at least the AFC Championship Game. Reports place him ahead of schedule and confident about a Week 1 start against Denver, though a player cleared to return is not always a player fully back from that injury.
Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III to balance an offense that leaned heavily on Mahomes before his injury and returns one of the league’s best interior lines in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.
Rashee Rice served a 30-day jail sentence this offseason for a felony street-racing conviction after a failed drug test, and the league has not indicated whether he faces a suspension. Behind Rice, Xavier Worthy and an aging Travis Kelce, the depth thins quickly, and Kansas City lost cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from the defense. Andy Reid and Mahomes have not entered a season with this much to prove since Mahomes took over as the starter, which is exactly the setup that has produced his best years before.
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