All the metrics, analytics and number crunching in the world cannot erase the most important statistic attached to the team that has captured college basketball’s imagination and its curiosity leading into March Madness.
Miami of Ohio’s record is 31-1. The Redhawks were the first college basketball team in five years to enter their conference tournament with an undefeated record.
Virtually everything else about the regular-season champions of the Mid-American Conference — their 339th-ranked schedule, their zero top-caliber (Quad 1) matchups, their ugly (and only) loss to a not-very-good UMass team — screams NIT or maybe no postseason bid at all.
And yet, leaving this mid-major darling out of March Madness when the brackets are revealed Sunday night would feel, to many, like a crime.
The fact that a team that started the season 31-0 isn’t sure whether it will make the tournament and stands to be this season’s version of a lovable underdog if it does speaks volumes about exactly why March Madness is unlike any other event in sports.
Unveiling the 68-team bracket is step one on the road to the Final Four, set for April 4-6 in Indianapolis. There will be four First Four games played Tuesday and Wednesday before action gets underway in earnest with first-round games Thursday and Friday.
A few nuggets to look for when the brackets come out:
Top seeding seems like an easy call
Houston and UConn had chances to make this interesting, but they lost their conference title games and are pegged as No. 2 seeds in virtually every mock bracket out there.
That leaves Duke, which won its 24th ACC title on Saturday, as the likely overall No. 1 seed. Michigan, Arizona and defending champion Florida are expected to join the Blue Devils as No. 1s. The Gators lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals, but nobody made a compelling case to replace them there.
SEC comes into Sunday with four teams on the bubble
Last season, the SEC set a record by placing 14 of its 16 teams in the tournament.
That number won’t be as high this season, but the league does have four teams on a rapidly shrinking bubble: Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn.
Auburn’s case might be both the most interesting and clear cut. Though the Tigers have some of the best metrics in the nation — starting with a third-ranked strength of schedule — their record is 17-16 and they have lost nine of their last 12.
Given Miami (Ohio)’s status, the committee could be choosing between a team with one loss and another with 16.
Others vying for what looks like four bubble spots: SMU, San Diego State, Stanford, Indiana. A Dayton win over VCU in Sunday’s Atlantic 10 title game would presumably shrink the bubble by one spot.
What to do with St. John’s?
Rick Pitino brought a beer to the post-game news conference. Yes, it’s time to celebrate at St. John’s.
Though the Johnnies edged UConn for the Big East regular-season title, then beat the Huskies again in the conference title game, very few have viewed Pitino’s team as better than Dan Hurley’s this year.
The consensus is that UConn will be a 2 seed and St. John’s will be a 5. Granted, the Big East is the worst of the power leagues this year and will probably only place three teams in the bracket (Villanova, yes; Seton Hall, almost surely not).
Then again, St. John’s only has one fewer win than the Huskies and beat them in two of three meetings this season.
“Three straight nights we didn’t relent at all,” Pitino said. “And that’s great going into the tournament.”
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