Chiefs over/under win projection great for Patrick Mahomes originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be aiming to return to the postseason in 2026 after missing out for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era last season.
No. 15 is dealing with an ACL injury and has set Week 1 as his return date, plus the Chiefs have had a soft roster turnover this offseason. Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson are out, so too Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, with Kenneth Walker and draftee Mansoor Delane coming in.
But what can we expect from the Chiefs in 2026?
After an offseason that has many people bullish on Kansas City returning to dominance, DraftKings has the Chiefs’ over/under win total set at 10.5 for the 2026 season, and Fox Sports revealed why.
“The Chiefs recorded their lowest win total since 2012 with just six wins, largely due to a brutal 1-9 record in one-score games,” Fox Sports wrote. “While Kansas City remained in playoff contention for most of the season, Patrick Mahomes’ ACL injury caused him to miss the final three games and effectively ended the team’s playoff hopes.
“With Mahomes expected to return by Week 1, Vegas expects the Chiefs to bounce back to championship-level contention in 2026.”
MORE:Ravens’ win total projection great news for Lamar Jackson
Can Chiefs hit the overs?
Last year aside, Mahomes had won at least 10 regular-season games for seven years, so winning 11 is easily doable.
But there is one big question for me.
When will Mahomes return? If it is Week 1, you can’t assume he’ll be 100 percent, which could impact how the Chiefs begin the season. Plus, what if Patrick doesn’t return until Week 4 or Week 5?
That means a month of Justin Fields, and suddenly winning 10+ games will look like a tall order.
But if, and that’s a big if, Mahomes is fully healthy starting in Week 1, I can see the Chiefs winning 10 or so games in 2026, and likely returning to the playoffs.
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