The main event of tonight’s UFC 328 fight card is the much-anticipated showdown between UFC middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev and former 185-pound titleholder Sean Strickland.
UFC 328 takes place at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday, May 9. Also on the card is a flyweight title fight between champion Joshua Van and challenger Tatsuro Taira.
We look at the opening betting odds and line movement for the UFC 328 main event battle between Chimaev and Strickland.
UFC 328 Main Event Opening Odds And Betting Line Movement
When BetOnline first published the odds for the UFC 328 main event, Chimaev was the -400 favorite over the +300 Strickland. Today, on UFC 328 fight day, the champ is listed at -500, while the challenger checks in at +375.
UFC 328 Main Event Most Bet Prop Bets
According to BetMGM, the following are the most bet prop bets for the showdown between Chimaev and Strickland:
Sean Strickland by KO/TKO or DQ +800
Sean Strickland by Decision/Technical Decision +850
Khamzat Chimaev by Submission -110
Khamzat Chimaev by Decision/Technical Decision +300
UFC 328 Main Event Prediction
In the weeks leading up to UFC 328, I was leaning toward a Chimaev decision. The thinking was that he would use his grappling skills to take Strickland to the mat and keep him there. However, with the level of trash talk Strickland has thrown at Chimaev, I no longer feel that will be the outcome. Instead, I expect Chimaev, who is the much better all-around fighter of these two to make an example of Strickland. He will punish him on the mat and get the submission win before the halfway point of the contest, which is scheduled for five rounds.
UFC 328 Main Card
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
UFC 328 Main Event: Chimaev Vs. Strickland
Chimaev (15-0) made his UFC debut in July 2020 with a second-round submission win over John Phillips. He followed that victory with a first-round TKO over Rhys McKee 10 days later, breaking the UFC record for the quickest turnaround between UFC wins in the modern era. Then, in September, Chimaev knocked out Gerald Meerschaert.
Things slowed down for Chimaev after that. He was booked to face Leon Edwards in December 2020, but that matchup never came to be despite multiple attempts to make the fight happen. The reason behind the numerous cancellations of Edwards vs. Chimaev was COVID-19.
When Chimaev finally returned to the Octagon in October 2021, he made short work of Li Jingliang, scoring a submission at 3:16 of Round 1.
In his next bout, Chimaev went the distance for the first time in his career, picking up a victory over Gilbert Burns. He followed that with a submission over Kevin Holland.
A break of more than a year followed that victory. Chimaev’s next outing was an October 2023 matchup against Kamaru Usman, a fight that Chimaev won via decision.
A year after that, Chimaev made short work of Robert Whittaker, defeating the ex-UFC middleweight champ via submission (face crank) in the first round of their UFC 308 scrap.
Chimaev’s next bout would be a title fight against then-UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis. The challenger entered the contest as the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings.
Chimaev dominated Du Plessis, earning 21:40 of control time over the course of the 25 minute matchup. He limited Du Plessis to 13 landed significant strikes on 29 attempts, cruising to an easy unanimous decision victory with scores of 50-44 on all three judge’s cards.
Strickland (30-7) joined the UFC in March 2014 after winning the King of the Cage middleweight title and defending that crown four times. His first two fights with the promotion were at 185 pounds, but he dropped to welterweight in 2015 and stayed at that weight until 2018. A motorcycle accident kept Strickland out of the Octagon for over two years. When he returned to action in October 2020, he did so at 185 pounds.
Strickland went 5-0 at middleweight before the UFC booked him against a rising Alex Pereira in July 2022. At the time, Strickland was ranked No. 4 in the division, while Pereira was unranked. Strickland was a -125 favorite over Pereira, who was the +105 underdog. Pereira won that fight, knocking out Strickland in 2:36. A split-decision loss to Jared Cannonier followed for Strickland.
Two wins later, with one of those bouts being at light heavyweight, Strickland found himself booked against then-UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland entered the contest as the +490 betting underdog to the champ, who was a -675 favorite. Strickland won the title, beating Adesanya by unanimous decision (49-46 x 3). His title reign lasted from September 10, 2023 to January 20, 2024 when Dricus du Plessis defeated him via split decision at UFC 297.
Strickland bounced back from that loss with a split-decision win over Paulo Costa in June 2024 at UFC 302.
Strickland earned a rematch with Du Plessis with his triumph over Costa. That fight, which took place at UFC 312 in February 2025, ended with Du Plessis retaining his title via unanimous decision. Strickland returned to the Octagon a year later, meeting the rising Anthony Hernandez in the main event of a Fight Night card. Strickland scored a third-round TKO win over Hernandez in that contest, earning himself a “Performance of the Night” bonus, as well as a title shot at UFC 328.
Strickland is the No. 3 ranked UFC middleweight.
We will have more on UFC 328 on fight night.
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