Sometimes I think we lose track of the Diamondbacks a little bit. They’ve only made the playoffs twice in the past 14 years, though they did make it to the World Series in 2023 (as an 84-win team). The other NL West teams tend to obscure them: the Dodgers and Padres because of their star power, the Giants and Rockies because of their ballparks. I did not head to the March fantasy baseball draft table targeting Snakes for my roster.
But with a third of the season in the books, Arizona is holding up nicely. The Diamondbacks stand 31-24, which is comfortably inside the wild-card cutline. The offense has mostly supported the team (10th in runs scored), while the pitching has been average (16th in ERA). And there are a handful of players offering fantasy value.
Let’s pop open the hood and see what’s going on in Phoenix.
Why fantasy managers should take a look at the D-backs
The first thing that struck me about this year’s club is how many older and surprising players dot the top of the roster. Four of the top six Arizona players by WAR are in their 30s: Eduardo Rodríguez (33), Nolan Arenado (35), Ildemaro Vargas (34) and Ketel Marte (32).
Marte is producing close to expectations, though his slugging is down a tick and he no longer runs much. We know what he is. But Rodríguez, Arenado and Vargas have all been unexpected producers, forcing their way from the waiver wire to active fantasy rosters.
It’s hard to take Rodríguez’s start at face value. That pretty 2.31 ERA doesn’t jibe with a 3.70 FIP and he has a small strikeout rate (18%) and a bloated walk rate (8.8%). All the good-luck signs are flashing: a 7.2% HR/FB rate and a miraculous 84.9% strand rate. He recently took advantage of some stream-friendly opponents (Giants, Rockies on the road, Mets), but I wouldn’t tempt fate against the better opponents that are coming.
Arenado’s Hall of Fame ticket is likely punched already, with 360 career homers and 10 Gold Gloves. He’s just shy of 60.0 WAR for his career. But it’s fun to see his best offensive season in four years, a .271/.351/.459 slash with seven home runs. Third base is not a deep fantasy position, so Arenado stands as the 3B12 through two months.
Arenado has a collection of older-player skills dotting his offensive profile. His bat speed is below average, his hard-hit metrics lag. His expected slugging (.361) is a whopping 98 points shy of his actual mark. Arenado’s best skills moving forward should be a credible batting average and consistent contact; he might struggle to get to 20 homers. I understand why he’s still unrostered in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues.
The Vargas story has come completely out of nowhere, a 34-year-old journeyman who’s never seen 300 at-bats in a season. The Snakes viewed him as a versatile bench player to open the year, but injuries and underperformance have forced Vargas into the lineup regularly. A .303/.330/.484 slash with seven homers will play in any format, and he’s earned most of that average (.291 xBA) even if Statcast doesn’t buy all the slugging (.412 slugging).
Vargas is another contact king (97th percentile in strikeout rate) but he’ll swing at almost anything (3.6% walks, 42.4% chase rate). You worry about that sort of thing being exploited as more teams get a look at Vargas. Perhaps that’s been the story over the past 17 games, where he’s at .215/.257/.292 with just three extra base hits.
Stories like this can expire at any time.
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Not every player has to have a Cinderella tilt. Sometimes it’s as simple as a great player performing to expectations. Corbin Carroll was a first-round staple in March and although he’s been closer to a third- or fourth-round producer so far, a .293-35-7-28-7 line is within a reasonable range of outcomes. This is a very safe place to park your money.
Geraldo Perdomo has not repeated his 2025 dream season, but he could be a reasonable buy-low. His plate-discipline stats are all excellent, and his .223 batting average should be 25 points higher based on Statcast data. Last year’s 20 home runs aren’t coming back, but this is a smart base stealer (69-for-85 over his career) who’s a strong bet to hit for a plus average moving forward (he’s at .274 since the beginning of 2024). He’s welcome on any of my rosters.
Michael Soroka might be the staff ace here, finally healthy again in his age-28 season. He’s an easy watch because he rarely walks anyone (2.1 BB/9) and he keeps the ball in the park (0.6 HR/9). He’s already given us a couple of double-digit strikeout games — those are always screaming buy signals.
His 3.25 ERA is a trickier case, depending on which ERA estimator you feel best about. Soroka is validated by FIP (2.84), trusted by SIERA (3.48) and dismissed by Savant (4.42). Which kind of porridge would you like? Soroka’s true value might be revealed in his next two starts, when he takes on the formidable Dodgers and Nationals.
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