Fernando Mendoza going 1st overall was expected, but it’s now official. Now that Mendoza is with the Las Vegas Raiders, we’ll be breaking down his 2026 fantasy football outlook.
The Raiders have been searching for a franchise quarterback, and they may have just found one. Mendoza helped lead Indiana to a national championship, threw for 3,535 yards, and won the Heisman Trophy last year.
Despite all of these impressive accomplishments, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Mendoza is going to be a star in 2026 fantasy football.
Fernando Mendoza Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders
As you would expect, the Raiders aren’t a great landing spot, since there’s a reason they had the first overall pick. That said, they went out and made some big moves in NFL free agency.
One notable signing that the Raiders made was Tyler Linderbaum. Being able to work with Linderbaum, who has made the Pro Bowl in three of his first four NFL seasons, should be great for Mendoza.
The Raiders also signed Jalen Nailor, who could be a solid depth option. Nailor has never been dominant, but he’s had over 400 yards in each of the last two seasons. Keep in mind that Nailor never received a ton of volume, failing to cross 55 targets in either season.
As for players who were on the team last year, Ashton Jeanty is a good option to have out of the backfield, and he’ll take some pressure off Mendoza. As for the receivers, Brock Bowers is the top weapon for this team. Outside of Bowers, though, there’s not another elite receiver.
That said, there’s one more factor to take into account. Mendoza may not even start in 2026. The Raiders brought in Kirk Cousins, who’s set to make $20 million dollars in guaranteed money this season.
While this doesn’t have a long-term impact on Mendoza, this is a massive deal for his 2026 outlook.
Fernando Mendoza 2026 Fantasy Football Projection
With Mendoza being the number one overall pick, my expectation is that he’s going to start at some point in the 2026 season. Cousins hasn’t been great, throwing for 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2025.
At the same time, it would also shock me if Mendoza didn’t play close to half of the season. I’m just not sure the Raiders would invest that kind of money into Cousins if the goal wasn’t for him to allow Mendoza to sit for a significant amount of time.
With that being said, this doesn’t sound great for Mendoza, at least for fantasy football. Fantasy managers would most likely drafting a quarterback who will be sitting on your bench for a significant part of the year, preventing you from making certain waiver wire moves.
Not only that, but fantasy football heavily relies on the rushing upside of a quarterback. Mendoza can move, but he doesn’t offer elite rushing upside.
In 2025, Mendoza had 276 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. It also needs to be noted that sacks count as negative rushing yards in college.
While it’s not bad, it doesn’t make up for the less than ideal situation he’ll be stepping into next year.
With that in mind, Mendoza is not a quarterback I’m going to be targeting in 2026 fantasy football.
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