Gap narrows in Alberta as federal Conservatives shed some support to Liberals: poll

The Conservative Party continues to hold the majority favour in what tends to be reliably-blue Alberta, but it has lost some support to the gain of the Liberals, according to a new poll.

The Abacus Data poll suggests the Conservatives boast a 51-per-cent share of the intended vote in the province. That is down 13 percentage points from their share of results in the 2025 federal election. 

Liberal support is up eight percentage points compared to last year’s election, with 36 per cent of respondents saying they would vote Liberal if a federal election were to be held today.

That narrows the gap between the two parties. When ballots were cast last year, the Conservatives led by 36 points; now they lead by 15.

The NDP, People’s Party of Canada, Green Party and “other” have all gained a percentage point each. 

The random online survey of 1,000 adults living in Alberta was conducted between Feb. 20 and Feb. 25. 

Abacus says the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20. 

Edmonton leaning Liberal 

“Edmonton seems to be the big driver in what’s shaping some of the provincewide numbers,” David Coletto, CEO and founder of Abacus Data, told CBC’s West of Centre podcast host Kathleen Petty.

More Edmonton voters are leaning Liberal than Conservative, according to the poll: 47 per cent compared to 40 per cent.

In Calgary, the Conservatives edge out the Liberals, with 49-per-cent voter intention compared to 39 per cent. 

“We’re not talking about a red wave that’s going to sweep over Alberta and elect a whole bunch of Liberals,” Coletto said. 

But it could mean some seat gains for the Liberals in Alberta should these current projections hold when voters next head to the polls federally, according to Éric Grenier, polls analyst and founder of The Writ.

Approval of Prime Minister Mark Carney is highest in Edmonton at 52 per cent. Meanwhile, his job approval is 45 per cent in Calgary and 30 per cent in other communities, according to the poll.

That said, both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre share similar favourability ratings across the province as a whole.

Forty per cent of those surveyed said they have a positive impression of Carney, with 37 per cent holding a negative view, 21 per cent neutral and two per cent did not know enough to say.

For Poilievre, 41 per cent held a positive view, compared to 38 per cent negative, 17 per cent neutral, and four per cent who could not say. 

What’s behind the numbers

While the poll is a snapshot in time, subject to change as events unfold, Coletto says there could be several factors shaping the numbers.

He points to the recent floor-crossing of Matt Jeneroux, an Edmonton MP who left the Conservatives to join the Liberals last month, as a possible factor.

Then there’s the fact Carney is a self-identified Albertan, which Coletto says could endear some in the province to him. 

“I think that’s scrambling people’s heads a little bit in Alberta. Like, it’s ‘bizarro world’ that you have a Liberal prime minister from Alberta who speaks to their virtues,” said Coletto. 

Alberta and Ottawa have found some common ground in recent months, including the memorandum of understanding on a new pipeline project. On Friday, Alberta and Ottawa reached a deal to allow the province to take control of regulatory approvals for major projects.

Plus, Coletto says, there are a number of external pressures, like dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, and now the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, that could cause some to see Carney as a steady hand. (The poll was conducted prior to the U.S. launching strikes on Iran.) 

Grenier says another big issue that could swing support in the weeks and months ahead is the separation movement. He says some Alberta voters opposed to separation could end up backing the Liberals.

“Whenever there’s a lot of talk of referendums in Quebec, the Quebec Liberals tend to get a spike because that is the home for federalists in Quebec,” Grenier said. “It would be really interesting if the Liberal Party of Canada becomes a home for federalists in Alberta.”

The Abacus poll follows several other recent polls that have shown a tightening in the support levels of the Conservative and Liberal parties in Alberta.

How the parties feel

“This is a crucial moment for our country — one that calls for strong leadership and a serious economic plan, and that’s what Mark Carney and our new Liberal government are delivering,” the Liberal Party said in a statement to CBC News.

“While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives continue to pander and divide, we will continue to be relentlessly focused on building a stronger Canada.”

The Conservative Party did not respond to a request for comment.