Well, if you’re a fan of defense, Week 1 was—something.
It started off well enough—the Seattle Seahawks intercepted Drake Maye three times, held the defending AFC champions to 10 points and posted top-five fantasy numbers. The San Francisco 49ers didn’t have a great game fantasy-wise, but they absolutely put the clamps on the Los Angeles Rams in Australia.
But then Sunday came—and oof.
Sunday’s slate featured the most points scored on opening weekend since the NFL-AFL merger—in 1970. Sure, there were some defenses that were as advertised—the Jacksonville Jaguars dominated Cleveland and Pittsburgh edge-rusher T.J. Watt single-handedly made the Steelers fantasy-relevant.
But you probably aren’t going to see the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals atop the fantasy leaderboard all that often. Or see an elite defense like the Houston Texans get roasted in their own building.
Never mind what happened in Kansas City Monday night. Yikes.
Team defenses are even more chaotic than usual in the early-going. And the best way to deal with that chaos is with order. With staying the course. If you spent early on one of those elite defense, it was with the knowledge the schedule wasn’t favorable early on. If you’re streaming matchup plays, congratulations for being smarter than the fantasy managers who drafted high-end units.
What? I’ve been saying in this column for like a decade. Do they listen? Nooooo.
Week 2 has to be the apex of bad fantasy decisions—if only because half the teams in the league are winless. If things didn’t go your way in Week 1, take a breath.
It’s uncouth to panic in September.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami Dolphins)
There might not be a more impressive performance in Week 1 than what the 49ers did in Australia Friday (which was Thursday for us, because whatever). The Niners didn’t just deal with the adversity of playing halfway across the world—they boatraced everyone’s Super Bowl favorite. Will there be some jetlag given how long the 49ers were in the Upside Down? Maybe. But a lethargic 49ers defense will be more than enough to handle a Miami offense that couldn’t get anything going last week in Vegas.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Tennessee Titans)
To be clear, the eagles didn’t play a great game defensively in Sunday’s nailbiter against the Commanders—the concerns about the team’s ability to generate pressure off the edge with Jonathan Greenard out appear to be valid. But this is a “get right” spot for the Eagles on defense, even if it’s a road game. Last week, the Titans couldn’t run the ball. Or throw the ball. Or block especially well. Other than that, the team that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defenses last year was fine.
Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona Cardinals)
Before we rain on the desert (it happens), due respect for what the Cardinals accomplished in Los Angeles last week—a whole lot of Survivor pool contestants are toast after the Redbirds not only beat the Chargers but handled them. The defending champs are a different animal though—despite being down multiple starters in the secondary in the opener the Seahawks shut the New England offense down—again. The Cardinals come back to earth this week. But it’s nothing but clear blue sky for whatever a Seahawk is. Is it wearing a snorkel?
Houston Texans (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
OK, just flush Week 1. Josh Allen got embarrassed the last time the Bills played the Texans, getting sacked a career-high eight times. He was clearly not happy about being embarrassed. But the Texans are a better defense than that, and this week they face a far less mobile quarterback in Joe Burrow. For all the talk of the improved defense in Cincinnati, not much is being said about an offensive line that’s mostly unchanged after last year. Last year wasn’t great—the Texans will rebound Sunday. Book it.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Not for nothing, but the Kansas City Chiefs we saw demolish the Denver Broncos Monday night looked quite a bit like, you know, the Kansas City Chiefs—including on defense. Kansas City allowed all of 176 yards of offense and 10 points. They forced two turnovers. Dropped Bo Nix four times. Now, the Chiefs get to play host to a Colts team that had all kinds of problems throwing the ball against Baltimore last week. Oh, and the Chiefs are at home—again. In primetime—again.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. New Orleans Saints)
If the Ravens can string together some more defensive performances like last week’s romp over the Colts, they’ll start climbing higher up weekly rankings—especially if the pass rush and secondary are as improved as they appeared. The matchup here is (weirdly) at least a bit concerning after Tyler Shough dropped 410 passing yards on the Lions, but Shough also threw a pair of interceptions.
Miami Dolphins v Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Week 1: Target Caleb Douglas and Kaelon Black
Dolphins rookie Caleb Douglas looks like his team’s WR1 making him the top waiver wire add of the week. Fellow rookie Kaelon Black has also carved out a role as Christian McCaffrey’s backup and then some.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
It’s tempting to give the Buccaneers “No-Doubter” status, but I’ll leave them here if only to accentuate that among streaming plays, this is the best in Week 2—and it’s not close. It’s not that Tampa’s defense was lights-out last week, although Baker Mayfield turnovers had more to do with the Bucs losing in Cincinnati than defensive lapses. This is all about the raging dumpster fire of an offense that is the Browns. Watched every snap of their Week 1 game (sigh). Target their opponent every week you possibly can.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
This is all about buying the dip—and make no mistake, the Chargers dipped. Los Angeles was one of the most can’t-miss defensive plays of Week 1 against an Arizona Cardinals team that surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to defenses last year. Instead, the Chargers notched one sack, allowed 26 points and got beaten—handily. But Week 2 is going to feature both defenses getting used to hitting again and offenses regressing as a result—both will happen in a busy weekend at SoFi Stadium.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Denver Broncos)
Won’t lie—have the Jaguars defense in every league I could get them in, because I’m a Browns fan who knew how last week was going to play out 10 years ago. But I drafted them as a one-week rental to cash in for Tampa this week. Now? If you can’t get Tampa, the Jags are worth another shot. Jacksonville sacked Deshaun Watson five times last week and forced two turnovers on the way to top-three fantasy turnovers, and Denver’s offense was all kinds of out of sync against Kansas City.
Green Bay Packers (at New York Jets)
The Packers are probably still trying to figure out what happened last week in Minnesota. Physicists are trying to figure out how the Jets and Giants won on the same day without the universe imploding. Again, this is about the record scoring (24.7 points per game for the week—the most in Week 1 since the merger in before I was born) regressing and defenses progressing. Green Bay also knows that they can’t afford an 0-2 start after the other three NFC North teams all won. Look for an aggressive showing on both sides of the ball…and Geno Smith remembering he’s Geno Smith.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Denver Broncos (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
This is the part of this column where fantasy managers need a plastic bag to blow into. The Broncos led the league in sacks last season and were one of the first defenses off draft boards this summer. But Denver’s defense just looked bad Monday night in Kansas City. The tackling was atrocious. Denver is better than that defensively—but personnel losses up front were evident and this week the Broncos host a Jaguars team that did whatever they wanted offensively in Week 1. Benching a defense and grabbing a second one is not something this analyst does. But if I had shares of Denver this week? Never say never.
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