With about two months remaining until the Kentucky Derby, the real serious contenders are about to surface. One of the major stepping stone races at this mile marker on the road to the first Saturday in May is the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. First ran in 1961 as the Rebel Handicap, the winner there, Bass Clef, went on to claim first in the Louisiana Derby and then finished third in the Kentucky Derby. That run told horsemen this race could be used as a springboard to greatness and many others have followed over the years. The most notable Rebel Stakes victor is American Pharoah who went on to win the Triple Crown in 2015. The 2026 edition offers 50 qualifying points to the winner, 25 for second, 15 for third, 10 for fourth, and 5 for fifth, so that means valuable points are up for grabs. The top 20 points earners from races around the world will enter the starting gates for the world’s most famous race. Also, for good measure, the Rebel Stakes will offer a purse of $1 million. Let’s take a look at the nine runners competing for their share of the spoils on March 1. We will list the contestants by post position with trainer, jockey, and morning line odds.(begins with 2 as the 1 horse Bravaro has scratched)
2 Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat 7-2)
Los Alamitos Futurity winner ships in from California for his first race as a three-year-old. Has traveled before and ran a solid third in Claiborne Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. Baffert has won this race a record eight times and we think he makes it nine with this son of Nyquist. Take the Test here.
3 Class President (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez 10-1)
Finished second in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 31. Son of Uncle Mo won his only other start at distance of one mile also at Gulfstream. Trainer/jockey combo has been highly successful in the past and might be a good value play in this one.
4 Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr. 8-5)
Son of Not This Time will be making his three-year-old debut in some deep water. Has one win and two seconds in three career starts. Win came at Ellis Park by 9 ¾ lengths at one mile distance on August 2, 2025. Last race was a strong second to Ted Noffey in Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Should be there at the end so certainly one for the exotic wagers.
5 HoneyStrategic Risk’s To Blame (Kenny McPeek, Emanuel Esquivel 20-1)
Arkansas-bred son of Blame is looking for the big prize in his home state. Has won his last two starts, both at Oaklawn Park. Has five career starts overall with three of them coming in New York last summer including two third place finishes. Wouldn’t Blame you if you left him off your ticket.`
6 Strategic Risk (Mark Casse, Javier Castellano 12-1)
Looked fantastic in winning Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 3, but lacked pizzazz in finishing 10th in Southwest Stakes on February 6. Has tactical speed and is absolutely worth a look at a price in this one.
7 Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Cristian Torres 9-2)
Southwest Stakes win in last start was a real beauty. Closed down the lane with authority after doing the same in finishing second in Smarty Jones. Two wins and two seconds in four career starts means he is always right there and should be again. Trainer has been hot this year and an across the board horse to bet if those odds hold.
8 Rancho Santa Fe (Brad Cox, Irad Ortiz Jr. 12-1)
Those odds on a Brad Cox trained horse are very enticing and his fight to finish fourth in Southwest Stakes was encouraging. Son of Tapit won both races as a two-year-old but has been fifth and fourth in starts at three. Not sure he gets up in this race but trainer/jockey combo is a winner.
9 Time For Music (Steve Asmussen, Keith Asmussen 30-1)
Six career starts has produced one win and one second. Has never raced in this type of company and this son of Not This Time appears to be in deep here. The Music likely stops this Time.
10 Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz 10-1)
Son of Army Mule has hit the board in four of five lifetime starts with two wins. Was a healthy second in Southwest Stakes in last start. From his outside post will likely go to the lead early. Jockey has been hot and trainer leads in wins at this meet. Very dangerous at a price and a good across the board play.
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