Topline
President Donald Trump claimed during his State of the Union speech Tuesday that gas prices are below $2.30 per gallon in a majority of states, falsely touting low prices as the average national cost of gasoline edges up in recent weeks and will likely continue doing so in the coming months.
Key Facts
Trump said in the longest State of the Union address in U.S. history that gas prices are “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states and in some places, $1.99 a gallon.”
The national average for a gallon of gas reached $2.98 on Wednesday, according to data from GasBuddy, continuing a weeks-long rise in prices that began in January.
No state has average gas prices lower than Oklahoma, where the average sits at $2.40 after rising from $2.29 one week ago, according to AAA.
A handful of pumps in Oklahoma and Texas have prices just below $2, according to user reports made on GasBuddy, though no gas station owners using GasBuddy have reported prices under $2 in either of the two states.
GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said in a Substack post Tuesday “only 8 out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide are selling gasoline below $2 per gallon.”
Why Are Gas Prices Rising?
The routine transition to summer-blend gasoline—a slightly more expensive gas required by the EPA during warmer months to reduce smog and harmful emissions—and military tensions between the U.S. and Iran are contributing to the increase, De Haan told Forbes. Most of the jump in prices is being led by the West Coast, where the seasonal transition for gas begins earlier. That transition will soon begin east of the Rockies, De Haan added. He also attributed part of the increase in prices to increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which could threaten to close or limit oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. “There’s certainly market anxiety surrounding the geopolitical tensions that’s pushed oil to that level,” De Haan said.
Will Gas Prices Continue Rising?
“Without a doubt,” De Haan said, noting routine seasonal price increases could push prices up 35 to 50 cents in the coming months. GasBuddy’s 2026 fuel outlook calls for national average gas prices to peak in April or May.
Tangent
Trump said he saw gas prices in Iowa reach as low as $1.85 per gallon. The average price for a gallon of gas in the state is $2.59, according to AAA. De Haan noted in his post that prices in Iowa did reach the $1.85 mark for a couple weeks early last month, though the low cost was the result of “localized price wars — not structural shifts.”
Big Number
5.2%. As of Trump’s State of the Union address, that is how much the national average for gas prices fell in Trump’s year in office.
Key Background
Gas prices in the U.S. hit an all-time high in 2022, reaching an average of $5.01 per gallon as demand surged after the pandemic amid lowering COVID-19 cases and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered fears of a drop in Russia’s oil exports. By the end of President Joe Biden’s term, the national average for a gallon of gas fell to around $3.07. Prices reached their lowest point in five years last month (around $2.73 per gallon) thanks to a combination of low, winter-fueled demand and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes Iran, increasing its rates of oil production. AAA has noted disruption to Iran’s oil infrastructure could impact U.S. gas prices, while GasBuddy has said markets could price in risk even without physical disruptions to supply lines.
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