Topline
The U.S. is now predicted to beat Belgium Monday as their teams go head to head at the World Cup, according to Polymarket and Kalshi, with betting odds moving to the U.S.’s favor after President Donald Trump lobbied FIFA to lift U.S. player Folarin Balogun’s suspension.
Key Facts
Polymarket gives the U.S. 40% odds of winning Monday night, as of 1:00 p.m. EDT Monday, while 34% of users predict a Belgium win and 28% predict it will be a draw.
Kalshi similarly gives the U.S. a 53% chance of winning, versus 47% for Belgium.
The U.S.’s odds went up on both betting sites after FIFA announced Sunday that Balogun, the U.S.’s star goal scorer, would be able to play in Monday’s match, with the U.S. pulling ahead Sunday around the time of FIFA’s announcement after Belgium was previously ahead on both sites.
Balogun was suspended from Monday’s match after being given a red card during the U.S.’s match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he was punished for alleged “foul play” after a video showed him stepping on another player’s ankle.
FIFA reversed the suspension Sunday after Trump personally called FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who has maintained the decision was made through the body’s independent review process.
Belgium has strongly opposed FIFA’s decision and appealed the move to let Balogun play, but its appeal was rejected Monday afternoon, meaning Balogun will face off against Belgium.
What to Watch for
The match between the U.S. and Belgium will begin at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday. The game is part of the “round of 16,” and the winner of Monday’s game will move on to the quarter-finals at the World Cup.
Big Number
$10.8 billion. That’s how much was spent on betting on Polymarket in June, becoming a record for the prediction market, while Kalshi had a trading volume of more than $30 billion, up more than 70% from May. The record levels are believed to be in large part due to the World Cup, as analysts project this year’s tournament is the biggest gambling event of all time.
Who Is Folarin Balogun?
Balogun is a 25-year-old striker who was born in the U.S. but grew up in London, and typically plays for AS Monaco FC in the French football league. He has become the breakout star of the American team at the World Cup and has scored three goals so far in the tournament, becoming the first American player since 1930 to score multiple goals in a World Cup match.
What Has Trump Said?
Trump took credit Monday for lifting Balogun’s suspension, claiming he was “the one who got” FIFA to lift the restriction. The president told reporters he thought the referee “made a call that nobody could believe” and while didn’t know “what the hell a red card was” before wading into the dispute, when he found out, he said, “You gotta be kidding!” His comments at the White House on Monday came after Trump cheered FIFA’s decision Sunday, writing on Truth Social, “Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!” Infantino has disputed Trump’s account that he was responsible for the decision, though he acknowledged he “regularly discuss[es] matters related to the FIFA World Cup” with the president and spoke with him about Balogun’s suspension. “During our conversation, I explained that there was an ongoing legal process involving FIFA’s independent judicial bodies and that the case would be decided in due course by the competent bodies,” Infanto said in a statement Monday.
Trump Says He Didn’t Know ‘What The Hell A Red Card Was’ Before Calling FIFA (Forbes)
Trump Spoke With FIFA President Before Folarin Balogun’s Red Card Was Suspended, Report Says (Forbes)
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