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Between the increasingly unpopular Iran war at home and domestic courts striking down his tariffs, Trump needs a win.
First, the security bargain. Xi Jinping wants a signal that Washington is stepping back from Taiwan. If Trump treats the island’s security as a bargaining chip to secure China’s help in ending the Iran war, he might hollow out Europe’s own strategic commitments in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump is also under pressure to relax chip export controls for quick business deals. If he trades away this edge, Washington and Beijing will set the global standards for AI alone with Europe becoming just a “rule-taker”, not maker.
Finally, the trade squeeze. European firms are already struggling to compete with cheap Chinese goods at home.
So if Trump relaxes tariffs, the flood of cheaper electric vehicles and steel might result in European exporters losing their competitive advantage in the US to the same Chinese rivals that are already flooding European shores.
And speaking of trade, let’s not forget Trump has given the EU a deadline until the 4th of July to finalise a new US-EU trade deal or face 25% tariffs on cars.
In Brussels, the centre-right EPP is rushing to settle, as a weakened Trump could turn his attention toward Europe next. However, Socialists are standing firm, insisting that European legislation will not be shaped by “threats on social media.”
It is a cliché to say that the Chinese word for crisis, 危机, is translated as “danger” and “opportunity”. While 危 is indeed danger, a better translation for 机 is a “crucial point.”
And it seems that for Europe that crucial point is happening is now.
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