Why the 76ers are poised to cover the spread in a must-win Game 3 against the Knicks at home

I put out a MAX play on this series before it began. This is the first time I’ve ever done that, and honestly, my record for MAX plays in the NBA in the past three years is something like 8-1. The one loss was a regular season future that didn’t hit. So, when I feel like it should be a MAX play, I usually hit. I won’t say I’m nervous about this, but I can’t say I feel great about the Knicks being up 2-0 over the 76ers at the moment, considering I need this to go six games.

The New York Knicks look like one of the two best teams in the NBA Playoffs. They have a deep team that is actually healthy when it matters, and they haven’t been run into the ground all season by a coach that is hell-bent on winning regular season games. I honestly don’t think Mike Brown has done anything transformational with this team, and I’d argue there isn’t much different going on with the team aside from better depth than last season.

Still, in four wins against the Hawks, they showed they were clearly the better team. Even in the two losses, they looked like the better team, losing both games by one point, with a chance to win in the final possession in both games. The biggest issue for me is that OG Anunoby will likely miss this game. While it is apparently a very minor hamstring strain, it makes more sense for the team to rest him for a game and then bring him back. That’s very similar to the strategy that the 76ers took with Joel Embiid.

Of the two teams, the Philadelphia 76ers are significantly more used to playing without key players than the Knicks. Embiid misses more games than he plays, and Paul George was suspended this season. This opens the door for the 76ers to get a win in the game. They weren’t elite at home in the regular season, and they’ve only won one of three playoff games at home in the postseason. However, this is a bit of a do-or-die for them. They need to win this game. What adjustments can they make?

76ERS VS KNICKS SECOND-ROUND SERIES PREDICTED TO GO AT LEAST SIX GAMES IN MUST-WATCH NBA MATCHUP

If Anunoby is out, the 76ers have two advantages from Game 2. Embiid will be back and give them a boost, and the Knicks will be down one of their best defenders, and someone who has been a reliable scorer this postseason. Tyrese Maxey hasn’t had a game where he fully took over – Game 2 looked like it would be, but he slowed down in the second half, and ultimately the 76ers lost a game they should’ve won. Expect Maxey and Embiid to both play well today, and for the Philly faithful to have the arena rocking.

Combine a Knicks team that got a very minor punch (but one they need to be cautious about) with the return of a Philadelphia superstar, and a return home for the team, and you get a great recipe for a win for the 76ers. Maybe I’m a fool for betting on them to win the game when I already have a big bet on them winning two games in the series. However, this is one they have to win to have any hope. If they lose this, a sweep is far too realistic.

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If you’ve already bet the over 5.5 games, as I did, you can bet a unit on the Knicks to try and get a little bit of money back. However, it’s probably too early to start looking to hedge. I expect the 76ers to be rejuvenated, ready to fight, and have the advantage in this one. Give me Philadelphia to cover the -1.5. I strongly suggest keeping an eye on the injury report before you tail.

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