The former Western Open tees off Thursday at Bellerive Country Club outside of St. Louis, MO, with Scottie Scheffler as the heavy favorite.
The now-BMW Championship is the second tournament in the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, sandwiched between the St. Jude Championship and the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
Unlike the other two tournaments, the BMW Championship is the only PGA Tour event that changes venues year to year, and this year’s host is a former major championship venue. Bellerive hosted Brooks Koepka’s first PGA Championship victory in 2018, where he went on to win by two strokes over a charging Tiger Woods.
“I think my focus (in the majors), I don’t know what it is, but I need to take it over into regular tour events too,” said Koepka in Golf Digest. “For some reason, the majors just get my attention, it’s so important. When you’re out here grinding away, firing at some flags, firing at the middle of the green, you just got to be very patient, and I always do a pretty good job of that in the majors.”
Neither Koepka nor Woods are in the field this week. In fact, most of the 2018 leaderboard is absent from the field. Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott and Justin Thomas all placed in the top six in 2018, but now are coming in with their games in great form.
One player who is in the field is Scottie Scheffler.
“Busy three-week stretch,” he said in Yardbarker. “I’m excited. I have three tournaments, three good starts to kind of end the year. Definitely excited to get this week going. I had a couple of good weeks of rest at home, and I’m looking forward to getting this week started.”
Scheffler started the “excitement” with a decisive eight-shot victory at the St. Jude, leading the field in strokes gained putting and ranking highly in driving and strokes gained tee-to-green. Data Golf currently gives Scheffler an 18.1% chance of winning this week.
Looking at course-fit data, however, Rory McIlroy measures the highest. Attributed to his season-long driving distance and accuracy, McIlroy has the statistical advantage, despite losing strokes around the green. McIlroy admittedly is in bad form going into the playoffs.
Second to Scheffler in Data Golf’s rankings is Ludvig Åberg, with Xander Schauffele third.
Schauffele tied for 25th in 2018 at Bellerive and comes into the tournament in good form and with a chip on his shoulder. Schauffele lacks a victory this year. Course knowledge and previous high finishes could make him a good pick to win.
Åberg placed in the top 10 in the past two events and is ranked sixth in strokes gained this year. Holding him back is his putting, where he ranks 60th on Tour. Putting played a more vital role in scoring than at the average PGA Tour venue, which may indicate it’s smart to fade Åberg.
A long shot in terms of odds but fitting the long-hitter role is Michael Brennan. Brennan got over the finish line at the Wyndham Championship and was briefly in the mix at the 3M Open. His worst category is around the green, a category that Bellerive does not prioritize. He ranks behind Åberg in putting, so fade him too.
Despite the course seeming to benefit driving distance and players with strong previous performances, it seems likely that the 2026 BMW Championship will be Scheffler’s.
Timothy is a founding member of Break80 Golf and a contributing golf and sports writer for Forbes with PGA Tour and LIV Golf media credentials. Timothy can be reached at break80podcast@gmail.com for inquiries or story leads.
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